July 12, 2010
Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 8:16AM There was very little in economic news last week, but what we did get was marginally positive. We started with ISM Non-Manufacturing, which was lower than expected (53.8 act. vs 55.00 est.), but still remained above 50, showing that 90% of the economy is still experiencing growth. Then we had jobless claims lower than expected (454k act. vs 460k est.), which markets took positively, as it could be setting a trend. There is a long way to go, however, to get the jobs market back on track. Finally retail chain stores sales improved 3% over last year. Put all this together and the stock market found momentum to get back above the 10,000 mark.
This week we have supply to get through again, as the treasury auctions $69B in notes and bonds. On Tuesday we get the National Federation of Independent Businesses Optimism report, which is still having trouble getting any real momentum; this one is very important to the overall recovery, as independent businesses have created 64% of all new jobs in the past 15 years. Wednesday we get Retail Sales, which isn’t expected to be positive. We will also get the minutes from the June 23rd FOMC meeting for any indication on the fed’s game plan going forward, as things seemed to have stalled here. Finally we get inflation numbers PPI and CPI, which should give the fed plenty of leeway to leave rates low for an extended period.
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Expected |
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Previous |
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7/12 |
Monday |
3-Year Treasury Auction$35B |
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7/13 |
Tuesday |
NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jun) |
91.0 |
vs |
92.2 |
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Trade Balance (May) |
-$39.0B |
vs |
-$40.3B |
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10-Year Treasury Auction $21B |
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7/14 |
Wednesday |
Retail Sales (Jun) |
-0.3% |
vs |
-1.2% |
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Retail Sales Ex-Autos (Jun) |
-0.1% |
vs |
-1.1% |
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Business Inventories (May) |
+0.3% |
vs |
+0.4% |
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Minutes June 23rd FOMC Meeting |
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30-Year Treasury Auction $13B |
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7/15 |
Thursday |
PPI (Jun) |
-0.1% |
vs |
-0.3% |
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Core PPI (Jun) |
+0.1% |
vs |
+0.2% |
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Empire Manufacturing (Jul) |
18.00 |
vs |
19.57 |
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Industrial Production (Jun) |
-0.1% |
vs |
+1.2% |
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Capacity Utilization (Jun) |
74.1% |
vs |
74.7% |
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Philadelphia Fed (Jul) |
10.0 |
vs |
8.0 |
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Jobless Claims (Jul 10) |
445k |
vs |
454k |
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7/16 |
Friday |
CPI (Jun) |
-0.1% |
vs |
-0.2% |
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Core CPI (Jun) |
+0.1% |
vs |
+0.1% |
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U of Michigan Confidence (Jul) |
74.0 |
vs |
76.0 |
Treasury Curve
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Maturity |
Yield 7/12/10 |
Tuesday 7/6/10 |
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1-Year |
0.29 |
0.30 |
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2-Year |
0.63 |
0.62 |
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5-Year |
1.82 |
1.80 |
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10-Year |
3.03 |
2.97 |
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30-Year |
4.02 |
3.94 |
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7/9/10 |
+/- |
7:00 A.M. |
+/- |
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Dow |
10198.03 |
+59.04 |
10211.80 |
+13.77 |
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MSFT |
24.27 |
|
24.69 |
+0.42 |
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BA |
64.66 |
|
64.77 |
+0.11 |
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