August 2, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010 at 7:00AM The economic numbers continued to show the economy staying in positive territory last week, but did not show much strength behind it. Friday’s first look at 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product showed the economy growing (+2.4% act. vs +2.6% est.), but slowing from the 1st Quarter’s +3.7% and last year’s 4th Quarter’s 5%. T he fed’s Beige Book said economic activity continued to increase but slowed in some areas, as commercial real estate markets continued to struggle and credit conditions were tight in most districts. Then on Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank President from St. Louis, James Bullard, released a research paper where he stated that “the U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style outcome today than at any time in recent history,” and that “a better policy response to a negative shock is to expand the quantitative easing program through the purchase of treasury securities,” rather than maintain a pledge to keep rates near zero. Bullard hopes the economy will continue to recovery and these issues will go away, but the fed needs to be prepared if another negative shock occurs.
This week we will get a lot of economic numbers, culminating with Friday’s employment/ unemployment. Today we got ISM Manufacturing, which came better than expected (55.5 act. vs 54.5 est.), but still slowed from last month, and on Wednesday, we will get ISM Non-Manufacturing, for an overall read on the economy.
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|
|
|
Expected |
|
Previous |
|
8/2 |
Monday |
ISM Manufacturing (Jul) |
54.5 |
vs |
56.2 |
|
|
|
ISM Prices Paid (Jul) |
55.0 |
vs |
57.0 |
|
|
|
Construction Spending (Jun) |
-0.5% |
vs |
-0.2% |
|
8/3 |
Tuesday |
Personal Income (Jun) |
+0.2% |
vs |
+0.4% |
|
|
|
Personal Spending (Jun) |
+0.1% |
vs |
+0.2% |
|
|
|
Core PCE (Jun) |
+0.1% |
vs |
+0.2% |
|
|
|
Factory Orders (Jun) |
-0.5% |
vs |
-1.4% |
|
|
|
Pending Home Sales (Jun) |
+3.9% |
vs |
-30.0% |
|
8/4 |
Wednesday |
ADP Employment Change (Jul) |
35k |
vs |
13k |
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|
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jul) |
53.0 |
vs |
53.8 |
|
8/5 |
Thursday |
Jobless Claims (Jul 31) |
455k |
vs |
457k |
|
8/6 |
Friday |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) |
-63k |
vs |
-125k |
|
|
|
Unemployment Rate (Jul) |
9.6% |
vs |
+9.5% |
|
|
|
Change in Private Payrolls (Jul) |
90k |
vs |
83k |
|
|
|
Avg. Hourly Earnings (Jul) |
+0.1% |
vs |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
Avg. Weekly Hours (Jul) |
34.1 |
vs |
34.1 |
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|
|
Consumer Credit (Jun) |
-$5.6B |
vs |
-$9.1B |
Treasury Curve
|
Maturity |
Yield 8/2/10 |
Monday 7/26/10 |
|
1-Year |
0.28 |
0.25 |
|
2-Year |
0.56 |
0.59 |
|
5-Year |
1.62 |
1.73 |
|
10-Year |
2.93 |
2.99 |
|
30-Year |
4.02 |
4.01 |
|
|
7/30/10 |
+/- |
7:00 A.M. |
+/- |
|
Dow |
10465.94 |
-1.22 |
10599.00 |
+133.06 |
|
MSFT |
25.81 |
|
26.00 |
+0.19 |
|
BA |
68.14 |
|
68.85 |
+0.71 |
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