Weekly Commentary

February 6, 2012

2012-02-06T18:29:00Z

It was quite the rollercoaster ride last week. We started with the FOMC’s comments from the week before still lingering, about extending the time frame of keeping rates low until late 2014, and finished the week off with stronger than expected employment data. Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence (61.1 act. vs 68.0 est.) went along with the fed’s poor assessment of the economy, as did Bernanke’s testimony to the House Budget Committee. But that mood changed on Friday: the nonfarm payroll number (243k act. vs 140k est.) and the unemployment rate (8.3% act. vs 8.5 est.) both came in above the forecasts, with the unemployment rate falling to the lowest since February 2009. Then the ISM Non-Manufacturing index, which comprises approximately 90% of the economy, also came in much higher than expected (56.8 act. vs 53.2 est.) for its highest reading since February 2011. These numbers gave support to the prospect that the economic recovery is taking hold, but more than one month of good employment data is needed. We still have problems in Europe and housing, and there are still a lot of headwinds that businesses and consumers have to confront.

This week there isn’t a lot of economic news, but we do have plenty of treasury supply that needs to be auctioned. We also have Bernanke testifying before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow, and markets will be watching to see if he makes any changes to last week’s comments after Friday’s employment numbers. (I doubt it.)

			Expected		Previous
2/6	Monday
2/7	Tuesday	Consumer Credit (Dec)	$7.000B	vs	-$20.374B
		Bernanke Testifies Senate Banking
		1-Year Treasury Bill Auction $25B
		3-Year Treasury Note Auction $32B
2/8	Wednesday	MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan)		vs	-2.9%
		10-Year Treasury Note Auction $24B
2/9	Thursday	Wholesale Inventories (Dec)	+0.4%	vs	+0.1%
		European Central Bank Decision (No Change)	1%	vs	1%
		Bank of England Rate Decision (No Change)	0.50%	vs	0.50%
		30-Year Treasury Bond Auction $16B
		Jobless Claims (Feb 4)	370k	vs	367k
2/10	Friday	Trade Balance (Dec)	-$48.5B	vs	-$47.8B
		U of Michigan Confidence (Feb)	74.5	vs	75.0
		Monthly Budget Stmt. (Jan)	-$45.0B	vs	-$49.8B

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 2/6/12	Monday 1/30/12
1-Year	0.13	0.11
2-Year	0.23	0.21
5-Year	0.76	0.72
10-Year	1.92	1.84
30-Year	3.11	2.99

	2/3/12	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	12862.23	+156.82	12812.96	-49.27
MSFT	30.24		30.10	-0.14
BA	76.30		75.47	-0.83

January 30, 2011

2012-01-30T18:59:47Z

The big news last week was the announcement by the fed that it is extending the expected time frame for keeping rates low from mid-2013 to late 2014. The lack of improvement in the unemployment rate and housing markets and expectations that inflation will remain stable caused the fed to make this announcement. One thing to remember, though, is that these are economists’ projections, and economists make weather men look good, even though I do think it will be a while before we see any real improvement in the economy or labor markets. Then on Friday we got our first look at 4th Quarter GDP (+2.8% act. vs +3.0% est.), which improved over the 3rd Quarter’s +1.8% but was shy of expectations; most of the improvement was from inventory buildup.

This week the big news will be Friday’s employment/unemployment numbers and then the ISM numbers for Manufacturing on Wednesday and Non-Manufacturing on Friday. Employment numbers are expected to drop from last month, with unemployment holding steady at +8.5%, and both ISM indices are expected to improve. Of course, the European debt crisis can still change markets quickly, as Greece works out the terms of its rescue package.

			Expected		Previous
1/30	Monday	Personal Income (Dec)	+0.4%	vs	+0.1%
		Personal Spending (Dec)	+0.1%	vs	+0.1%
		Core PCE (Dec)	+0.1%	vs	+0.1%
1/31	Tuesday	Employment Cost Index (4th Qtr.)	+0.4%	vs	+0.3%
		Chicago Purchasing Mgr. (Jan)	63.0	vs	62.5
		Consumer Confidence (Jan)	68.0	vs	64.5
2/1	Wednesday	ADP Employment Change (Jan)	183k	vs	325k
		Construction Spending (Dec)	+0.5%	vs	+1.2%
		ISM Manufacturing (Jan)	54.5	vs	53.9
		ISM Prices Paid (Jan)	50.0	vs	47.5
2/2	Thursday	Unit Labor Costs (4th Qtr.)	+0.9%	vs	-2.5%
		Nonfarm Productivity (4th Qtr.)	+0.8%	vs	+2.3%
		Jobless Claims (Jan 28)	370k	vs	377k
2/3	Friday	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)	145k	vs	200k
		Private Payrolls (Jan)	163k	vs	212k
		Unemployment Rate (Jan)	+8.5%	vs	+8.5%
		Avg. Hourly Earnings (Jan)	+0.2%	vs	+0.2%
		Avg. Weekly Hours (Jan)	+34.4	vs	+34.4
		ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jan)	53.2	vs	52.6
		Factory Orders (Dec)	+1.5%	vs	+1.8%

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 1/30/12	Monday 1/23/12
1-Year	0.11	0.10
2-Year	0.21	0.23
5-Year	0.72	0.91
10-Year	1.84	2.06
30-Year	2.99	3.14

	1/27/12	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	12660.46	-74.17	12559.62	-100.84
MSFT	29.23		29.13	-0.10
BA	74.55		74.02	-0.53

January 23, 2011

2012-01-23T19:23:06Z

The U.S. economy continued to plug along last week and European markets calmed down, as the three-year loan funding that recently took place has given markets some needed relief. In the U.S., regional manufacturing numbers Empire Manufacturing (13.48 act. vs 11.00 est.) and Philadelphia Fed (7.3 act. vs 10.3 est.) showed growth over December, but the big surprise was Jobless Claims (352k act. vs 384k est.), which was the lowest reading since April 2008.

The big news this week is the two-day FOMC meeting, where the fed is planning to start publishing its predictions on where it intends to set short-term rates and to be more open in an effort to remove any doubt on what it’s doing. This is quite a change for the fed, and it hopes that this will increase the impact of its policies. One thing markets will be watching for is any hint of QE3 in the near future. We also will get our 1st look at 4th Qtr. GDP, which is expected to be at 3%, and we’ll have $99B in treasury supply to auction.

			Expected		Previous
1/23	Monday
1/24	Tuesday	2-Year Treasury Note Auction $35B
		2012 State of the Union Address
		FOMC Meeting Day 1 of 2
1/25	Wednesday	Pending Home Sales (Dec)	-0.1%	vs	+7.3%
		FOMC Rate Decision	0.00-0.25%	vs	0.00-0.25%
		5-Year Treasury Note Auction $35B
1/26	Thursday	Durable Goods (Dec)	+2.0%	vs	+3.8%
		Durable Goods Ex-Transportation (Dec)	+0.9%	vs	+0.3%
		Leading Indicators (Dec)	+0.7%	vs	+0.5%
		New Home Sales (Dec)	320k	vs	315k
		Jobless Claims (Jan 21)	365k	vs	352k
		7-Year Treasury Note Auction $29B
1/27	Friday	GDP (4th Qtr. 1st Look)	+3.0%	vs	+1.8%
		GDP Price Index (4th Qtr. 1st Look)	+2.0%	vs	+2.6%
		Personal Consumption (4th Qtr. 1st Look)	+2.5%	vs	+1.7%
		U of Michigan Confidence (Jan)	74.2	vs	74.0

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 1/23/12	Tuesday 1/17/12
1-Year	0.10	0.10
2-Year	0.23	0.22
5-Year	0.91	0.81
10-Year	2.06	1.90
30-Year	3.14	2.95

	1/20/12	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	12720.48	+96.50	12755.06	+34.58
MSFT	29.71		29.94	+0.23
BA	75.52		76.14	+0.62

January 17, 2011

2012-01-17T23:40:39Z

Same story, different year, as the U.S. economy continues to improve but European problems just won’t go away. In the U.S. last week, the NFIB Small Business Optimism number improved for the fourth month in a row (93.8 act/est), as the economy appears to be slowly improving, and Retail Sales came in lower than expected but still positive (+0.1% act. vs +0.3% est.). The Fed released its Beige Book for a region-by-region look at the economy, and the consensus was “modest to moderate” growth. Over in Europe, S&P had been hinting at cutting ratings on some sovereigns and on Friday,it stepped up, cutting long-term ratings on nine countries and affirming seven. France was cut to AA+ from AAA with negative watch, and Germany was affirmed at AAA/stable. Over the weekend, talks stalled in Greece over the restructuring of its debt; once again, talks of default are surfacing, as Greece has 14.5 billion Euros ($18 billion) in debt to refinance on March 20th.

This holiday-shortened week, we have regional manufacturing numbers, with Empire Manufacturing for the New York area and Philadelphia Fed, inflation numbers PPI and CPI, and then some housing numbers. After Friday’s downgrades, markets in Europe seem to be doing fine and it seems the European Central Bank’s three-year loan program is working, as markets are functioning smoothly…so far.

			Expected		Previous
1/16	Monday	MLK Holiday
1/17	Tuesday	Empire Manufacturing (Jan)	11.0	vs	9.53
1/18	Wednesday	PPI (Dec)	+0.1%	vs	+0.3%
		Core PPI (Dec)	+0.1%	vs	+0.1%
		Industrial Production (Dec)	+0.5%	vs	-0.2%
		Capacity Utilization (Dec)	78.1%	vs	77.8%
1/19	Thursday	CPI (Dec)	+0.1%	vs	-0.0%
		Core CPI (Dec)	+0.1%	vs	+0.2%
		Housing Starts (Dec)	680k	vs	685k
		Building Permits (Dec)	678k	vs	681k
		Philadelphia Fed (Jan)	10.1	vs	10.3
		Jobless Claims (Jan 7)	385k	vs	399k
1/20	Friday	Existing Home Sales (Dec)	4650k	vs	4420k

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 1/17/12	Monday 1/9/12
1-Year	0.10	0.10
2-Year	0.22	0.25
5-Year	0.81	0.86
10-Year	1.90	1.98
30-Year	2.95	3.04

	1/13/12	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	12422.06	-48.96	12548.49	+126.43
MSFT	28.25		28.50	+0.25
BA	74.60		75.75	+1.05

January 9, 2011

2012-01-09T18:32:06Z

Last week’s holiday-shortened week brought good economic data for the U.S., but it’s just one month of data. The biggest numbers were employment/unemployment, which were better numbers than markets expected on the surface, but after looking at the details, weren’t quite as good and showed we need more data. The nonfarm payroll number was much better (200k act. vs 155k est.), but in looking at the details, 42k of those jobs were couriers added for the holiday season and most likely will disappear next month; taking them out brings the number back to expectations. The unemployment number (+8.5% act. vs +8.7 est.) was the lowest since February of 2009, but New York Fed President Dudley’s comments after the number about the outlook for unemployment being unacceptably high and the fed considering further monetary easing took the euphoria out of the jobs numbers.

This week we have $91B in treasury supply to place besides T-bills; we get the NFIB Small Business Optimism report for a read on small businesses; we get the Fed’s Beige book for a region-by-region look at the economy; and we finish with Retail Sales to see how consumers spent during the holidays. That’s what we get on the home front, but we still have European concerns and, with both Italy and Spain coming to market this week to borrow, it should be interesting. Italy’s 10-year bond is currently above 7%, and that seemed to be the threshold of pain for both Greece and Ireland before they needed to get help from the European Central Bank.

			Expected		Previous
1/9	Monday	Consumer Credit (Nov)	$7.000B		$7.645B
1/10	Tuesday	NFIB Small Business Optimism (Dec)	93.9	vs	92.0
		Wholesale Inventories (Nov)	+0.5%	vs	+1.6%
		1-Year Treasury Bill Auction $25B
		3-Year Treasury Auction $32B
1/11	Wednesday	Fed’s Beige Book
		10-Year Treasury Note Auction $21B
1/12	Thursday	Retail Sales (Dec)	+0.3%	vs	+0.2%
		Retail Sales less Autos (Dec)	+0.3%	vs	+0.2%
		Business Inventories (Nov)	+0.4%	vs	+0.8%
		Jobless Claims (Jan 7)	375k	vs	372k
		Monthly Budget Stmt. (Dec)	-$81.5B	vs	-$80.0B
		30-Year Treasury Bond Auction $13B
1/13	Friday	Trade Balance (Nov)	-$45.0B	vs	-$43.5B
		U of Michigan Confidence (Jan)	71.5	vs	69.9

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 1/9/12	Tuesday 1/3/12
1-Year	0.10	0.11
2-Year	0.25	0.25
5-Year	0.86	0.88
10-Year	1.98	1.95
30-Year	3.04	2.97

	1/6/12	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	12359.92	-55.78	12359.62	-0.30
MSFT	28.10		28.01	-0.09
BA	73.98		74.33	+0.35

December 19, 2011

2011-12-19T18:50:43Z

Europe remained on everyone’s radar screen last week, but with nothing new to report, attention returned to our own economy. Retail Sales improved but at much less than expectations (+0.2% act. vs +0.6% est.), and was at the slowest pace in five months, as it seems consumers are trying to live within their means. The regional manufacturing numbers we got, Empire Manufacturing for the New York area (9.53 act. vs 3.00 est.) and Philadelphia Fed (10.3 act. vs 5.0 est.) both showed good improvement. Then the FOMC left rates unchanged, as expected, and reiterated that rates would remain at “exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013.” They did express that “the unemployment rate remains elevated” and “strains in the global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.”

This holiday-shortened week, we once again have supply of $99B in treasury notes to auction, several housing-related numbers, and our final look at 3rd Quarter GDP. As we get ready to head into 2012, debt will remain the number one impediment to economic growth, as all the European countries and the United States, both as individual states and as a nation, try to get our debt under control, all of which point to less government stimulus to spur growth. On that joyful note,

Wishing you a Safe and Happy Holiday!!!

			Expected		Previous
12/19	Monday	2-Year Treasury Note Auction $35B
12/20	Tuesday	Housing Starts (Nov)	635k	vs	628k
		Building Starts (Nov)	635k	vs	653k
		5-Year Treasury Note Auction $35B
12/21	Wednesday	Existing Home Sales (Nov)	5070k	vs	4970k
		7-Year Treasury Note Auction $29B
12/22	Thursday	GDP (3rd Qtr. Final)	+2.0%	vs	+2.0%
		GDP Price Index (3rd Qtr. Final)	+2.5%	vs	+2.5%
		Personal Consumption (3rd Qtr. Final)	+2.3%	vs	+2.3%
		U of Michigan Confidence (Dec Final)	68.0	vs	67.7
		Leading Indicators (Nov)	+0.3%	vs	+0.9%
		Jobless Claims (Dec 17)	380k	vs	381k
12/23	Friday	Durable Goods (Nov)	+2.1%	vs	-0.7%
		Durables Ex Transportation (Nov)	+0.4%	vs	+0.7%
		Personal Income (Nov)	+0.2%	vs	+04%
		Personal Spending (Nov)	+0.3%	vs	+0.1%
		Core PCE (Nov)	+0.1%	vs	+0.1%
		New Home Sales (Nov)	315k	vs	307k
		Early Close 11:00 P.S.T. Christmas Holiday

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 12/19/11	Monday 12/12/11
1-Year	0.11	0.08
2-Year	0.23	0.22
5-Year	0.83	0.86
10-Year	1.87	2.02
30-Year	2.86	3.06

	12/16/11	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	11866.39	-2.42	11911.84	+45.25
MSFT	26.00		25.89	-0.11
BA	71.01		71.32	+0.31

December 12, 2011

2011-12-12T21:38:46Z

Once again, same story, different week, as events in Europe continued to be the focus last week. European heads of state met last week and came up with new rules on fiscal discipline with stiff penalties and sanctions for those who don’t comply, but not much else. It was the European Central Bank’s move to offer banks unlimited loans for up to three years and allow a wider range of collateral that the banks could use that carried the most weight toward easing concerns. These moves should help somewhat but won’t solve the problems, and they make it more likely that S&P’s threat to downgrade 15 of the Euro zone’s 17 countries will come to pass; that won’t help countries’ ability to borrow and their cost to borrow.

This week we have our own supply to digest, as the treasury auctions $147B in bills, notes and bonds; we also have an FOMC meeting, from which markets aren’t expecting anything new. On Tuesday we’ll get a read on small businesses expectations with NFIB Small Business Optimism, which hasn’t been optimistic for a while, and Retail Sales for a look at consumers’ spending. Then on Thursday we’ll get a regional look at manufacturing, with Empire Manufacturing for the New York area, Philadelphia Fed, and the inflation number PPI, followed on Friday by CPI.

			Expected		Previous
12/12	Monday	Monthly Budget Stmt. (Nov)	-$139.9B	vs	-$150.4B
		3-Year Treasury Auction $32B
12/13	Tuesday	NFIB Small Business Optimism (Nov)	91.5	vs	90.2
		Retail Sales (Nov)	+0.5%	vs	+0.5%
		Retail Sales Less Autos (Nov)	+0.4%	vs	+0.6%
		Business Inventories (Oct)	+0.8%	vs	0.0%
		FOMC Rate Decision 11:15	0-0.25%	vs	0-0.25%
		10-Year Treasury Auction $21B
12/14	Wednesday	30-Year Treasury Auction $13B
12/15	Thursday	PPI (Nov)	+0.2%	vs	-0.3%
		Core PPI (Nov)	+0.2%	vs	0.0%
		Empire Manufacturing (Dec)	3.00	vs	0.61
		Industrial Production (Nov)	+0.1%	vs	+0.7%
		Capacity Utilization (Nov)	77.8%	vs	77.8%
		Philadelphia Fed (Dec)	5.0	vs	3.6
		Jobless Claims (Dec 10)	390k	vs	381k
12/16	Friday	CPI (Nov)	+0.1%	vs	-0.1%
		Core CPI (Nov)	+0.1%	vs	+0.1%

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 12/12/11	Monday 12/5/11
1-Year	0.08	0.10
2-Year	0.22	0.26
5-Year	0.86	0.96
10-Year	2.02	2.09
30-Year	3.06	3.08

	12/9/11	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	12184.26	+186.56	12036.30	-147.96
MSFT	25.70		25.35	-0.35

December 5, 2011

2011-12-05T17:56:59Z

The big news last Wednesday was supposed to be ADP and the Fed’s Beige Book, but six central banks (U.S., Europe, England, Switzerland, Japan, and Canada) stepped in to ease terms on dollar swap transactions, allowing banks to get U.S. dollar advances more cheaply, and set a lengthened time, until February 2013, in which they would be available. This action signaled to the markets that the central banks would be vigilant in trying to avoid another meltdown similar to what occurred after the Lehman failure by providing liquidity in the European debt crisis. On the U.S. economic front, the nonfarm payroll number (120k act. vs 125k est.) was slightly weaker than expected, but previous months were revised upward. The bigger news was unemployment, dropping much more than expected (+8.6% act. vs 9.0% est.). Even though these were positive numbers, it would still take almost a decade of this level of employment growth to get the unemployment rate down to 5%, and the unemployment number was mostly attributed to a decline in labor force participation.

This week we don’t have much in U.S. economic news, with today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing number (52.0 act. vs 53.9 est.) being the highlight, so once again the focus will go back to Europe. The big event there is Friday’s summit of European heads of state, and many consider this to be their last chance this year to come up with a meaningful plan to address the debt crisis.

			Expected		Previous
12/5	Monday	ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov)	53.9	vs	52.9
		Factory Orders (Oct)	-0.3%	vs	+0.3%
12/6	Tuesday
12/7	Wednesday	Consumer Credit (Oct)	$7.000B	vs	$7.386B
12/8	Thursday	Wholesale Inventories (Oct)	+0.3%	vs	-0.1%
		Jobless Claims (Dec 2)	395k	vs	402k
12/9	Friday	Trade Balance (Oct)	-$43.9B	vs	-$43.1B
		U of Michigan Confidence (Dec)	65.8	vs	64.1

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 12/5/11	Monday 11/28/11
1-Year	0.10	0.12
2-Year	0.26	0.28
5-Year	0.96	1.00
10-Year	2.09	2.07
30-Year	3.08	3.03

	12/3/11	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	12019.42	-0.61	12177.45	+158.03
MSFT	25.22		25.59	+0.37
BA	71.30		72.60	+1.30

November 29, 2011

2011-11-29T15:59:43Z

Last week: same old story, different week, as European debt concerns continue to weigh on the markets and stocks and bonds traded with the headlines du jour. On the home front, our second look at 3rd Quarter GDP wasn’t as robust as we’d hoped for (+2.0% act. vs +2.5% est.), and even +2.5% growth isn’t that exciting normally. In addition, the volatile Durable Goods came in better than expected but was still negative (-0.7% act. vs -1.2% est.), as demand for aircraft and business equipment slowed. Congress’ super committee also failed as expected to come up with a plan to cut $1.2 trillion from the U.S. deficit over ten years, which will put in to play automatic cuts; if we don’t do something, we’ll be in the same predicament as Europe in the near future.

This week, we start with the headlines du jour of European leaders drafting plans for a bail-out fund and retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend setting a record up 16%, so stocks are up, bonds are down. The U.S. economic highlights this week will be Wednesday’s Fed Beige Book for a region-by-region look at the economy, the ISM Manufacturing number on Thursday, and Friday’s employment/unemployment numbers. Until Europe comes up with a solid plan to solve the crisis, we’re in for more ups and downs, and more pain is needed before that happens.

			Expected		Previous
11/28	Monday	New Home Sales (Oct)	315k	vs	313k
11/29	Tuesday	Consumer Confidence (Nov)	44.0	vs	39.8
11/30	Wednesday	ADP Employment Change (Nov)	130k	vs	110k
		Nonfarm Productivity (3rd Qtr. Final)	+2.5%	vs	+3.1%
		Unit Labor Cost (3rd Qtr. Final)	-2.1%	vs	-2.4%
		Chicago Purchasing Mgr. (Nov)	58.5	vs	58.4
		Pending Home Sales (Oct)	+2.0%	vs	-4.6%
		Fed’s Beige Book
12/1	Thursday	ISM Manufacturing (Nov)	51.7	vs	50.8
		ISM Prices Paid (Nov)	45.0	vs	41.0
		Construction Spending (Oct)	+0.3%	vs	+0.2%
		Jobless Claims (Nov 26)	390k	vs	3k
12/2	Friday	Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)	120k	vs	80k
		Private Payrolls (Nov)	146k	vs	104k
		Unemployment Rate (Nov)	+9.0%	vs	+9.0
		Avg. Hourly Earnings (Nov)	+0.2%	vs	+0.2%
		Avg. Weekly Hours (Nov)	34.3	vs	34.3

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 11/28/11	Monday 11/21/11
1-Year	0.12	0.10
2-Year	0.28	0.28
5-Year	1.00	0.89
10-Year	2.07	1.96
30-Year	3.03	2.93

	11/25/11	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	11231.78	-25.77	11538.91	+307.13
MSFT	24.30		24.81	+0.51
BA	62.78		65.13	+2.35

November 14, 2011

2011-11-14T20:11:59Z

Europe remained front and center last week, as Greece got a new Prime Minister and Italy announced austerity measures that will replace its Prime Minister and form a new government. Early in the week, Italy, which has the world’s third largest bond market, saw its 10-year bond trade above 7%, which in the past has been the breaking point for other European countries, i.e., Greece, Ireland and Portugal, when they needed to be bailed out. By week’s end, though, Italy had approved its austerity package, which, for the time being, has calmed markets. On the home front, attention now shifts to our own debt problems; the super committee, a 12-member congressional panel, has until November 23rd to come up with $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next ten years to avoid automatic cuts and at the moment, expectations aren’t high.

This week, Europe will remain the focal point, but we also get important economic numbers every day but today. Inflation numbers, PPI and CPI, will be reported Tuesday and Wednesday, with regional manufacturing numbers Empire Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed on Tuesday and Thursday. We will also get Retail Sales on Tuesday for a read on how the consumer is spending, and then housing numbers on Thursday. The numbers are anticipated to be mixed, but with the austerity measures expected to be put in place in Europe, growth over there will only get slower, which, in turn, will keep our growth slow. For the near future, it isn’t getting better anytime soon.

			Expected		Previous
11/14	Monday
11/15	Tuesday	PPI (Oct)	-0.1%	vs	+0.8%
		Core PPI (Oct)	+0.1%	vs	+0.2%
		Retail Sales (Oct)	+0.3%	vs	+1.1%
		Retail Sales Ex-Autos (Oct)	+0.2%	vs	+0.5%
		Empire Manufacturing (Nov)	-2.00	vs	-8.48
		Business Inventories (Sep)	+0.1%	vs	+0.5%
11/16	Wednesday	CPI (Oct)	0.0%	vs	+0.3%
		Core CPI (Oct)	+0.1%	vs	+0.1%
		Capacity Utilization (Oct)	77.6%	vs	77.4%
		Industrial Production (Oct)	+0.4%	vs	+0.2%
11/17	Thursday	Housing Starts (Oct)	610k	vs	658k
		Building Permits (Oct)	603k	vs	594k
		Philadelphia Fed (Nov)	8.0	vs	8.7
		Jobless Claims (Nov 11)	395k	vs	390k
11/18	Friday	Leading Indicators (Oct)	+0.6%	vs	+0.2%

Treasury Curve

Maturity	Yield 11/14/11	Monday 11/7/11
1-Year	0.08	0.08
2-Year	0.23	0.23
5-Year	0.92	0.88
10-Year	2.09	2.04
30-Year	3.16	3.09

	11/11/11	+/-	7:00 A.M.	+/-
Dow	121153.68	+259.89	12106.84	-46.84
MSFT	26.91		26.84	-0.07
BA	66.92		68.44	+1.52